Rapid growth, new therapies forecast for HER2-negative breast cancer setting

GlobalData expects this market setting to grow fourfold by 2023, expanding at a CAGR of 15.5 percent to reach $6.12 billion

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In one of its latest reports, GlobalData examined the HER2-negative breast cancer market, which consists of two major subtypes: hormone receptor positive (HR+) and triple negative breast cancer (TNBC), the former of which accounts for approximately 90 percent of all HER2-negative breast cancers while the latter accounts for roughly 10 percent.
 
The HER2-negative breast cancer market will see a fourfold increase, jumping at a compound annual growth rate of 15.5 percent from $1.45 billion in 2013 to $6.12 billion by 2023. That growth, GlobalData explains, will be driven by “the rapid uptake of new premium priced agents in both the HR+ and TNBC settings.” The two subtypes each represent roughly an equal share of the HER2 negative market at present, but by 2023, GlobalData estimates that the market shares will fluctuate to around 80 percent for the HR+ setting and 20 percent for the TNBC setting. Furthermore, by 2023, GlobalData predicts that the adjuvant setting will be the most lucrative one within both HR+ and TNBC.
 
The pipeline for HR+ breast cancer is promising, GlobalData notes, with some of the most promising agents consisting of PI3K and CDK 4/6 inhibitors, which the firm believes “will have a phenomenal effect on the treatment paradigm for patients with the disease and address many of the unmet needs which patients currently face.” The forecast collective sales from those agents are expected to account for $3.6 billion and 79 percent of the global sales for this cancer subtype in 2023. Among them, GlobalData predicts that Pfizer Inc.'s Palbociclib will see sales of $1.85 billion in 2023, which will make it the highest-grossing drug in the HR+ setting and HER2-negative breast cancer as a whole.
 
TNBC presents a more difficult target, as it presents negative for HER2, the estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor, limiting available treatment options. There are still new options here as well, however, as GlobalData notes that PARP inhibitors could provide big changes for the BRCA mutation positive market, account for roughly $1.02 billion and 94 percent of global sales for TNBC in 2023. Of these, AstraZeneca's Lynparza is expected to see sales of $926.3 million in 2023, with 79 percent ($731 million) of its sales expected to come from the adjuvant setting (TNBC).
 
This report follows a few months after GlobalData released its report on the HER2-positive breast cancer setting. Though effective options exist in this setting—Roche's Herceptin, the leading therapy for HER2-positive breast cancer, and the company's other drugs Perjeta and Kadcyla, the latter two of which are expected to allow Roche to occupy more than 95 percent of this market in 2023—the pipeline is rather weak.
 
GlobalData expects premium pricing of new agents, as well as an aging population in the United States, 5EU, Japan and China, to drive growth in the HER2-positive market setting. The market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 9.82 percent, reaching $12.63 billion by the year 2023, and the largest segment will be the adjuvant setting, as with HER2-negative breast cancer. In HER2-positive breast cancer, the adjuvant setting will see a compound annual growth rate of 12.3 percent to represent 63 percent of the total market in this setting.


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