NORWALK, Conn.—Driven by strong near-term growth in theUnited States market, the global pharmaceutical market may grow 4 to 6 percentnext year, exceeding $825 billion, according to a recent report by marketresearch firm IMS Health.
IMS Health's forecast predicts global pharmaceutical marketsales to grow at a 4 to 7 percent compound annual growth rate through 2013, andtakes into account the impact of the global macroeconomy, the changing mix ofinnovative and mature products, and the rising influence of healthcare accessand funding on market demand. Global pharmaceutical market value is expected toexpand to $975 billion or more by 2013, IMS Health said.
The firm also raised its expectations for five-yearpharmaceutical market growth by one percentage point, partly due to thestronger demand being experienced in 2009.
"Overall, market growth is expected to remain athistorically low levels, but stronger-than-expected demand in the U.S. islifting both our short- and longer-term forecasts," said Murray Aitken, seniorvice president of Healthcare Insight at IMS. "The economic climate willcontinue to be a dampening influence in most mature markets, particularly inthose countries with rising budget deficits and publicly funded healthcaresystems. In the U.S., pricing flexibility and inventory management actions arecontributing to much higher growth than anticipated earlier this year, and arethe main reasons for the upward adjustment to our five-year forecast."
IMS Health also pointed out that a number of events mayoccur in 2010 that also could have a long-term effect on the pharmaceuticalmarket. These include the potential for passage of comprehensive healthcarereform in the U.S. as well as legislative or regulatory actions in othercountries, the magnitude of the H1N1 pandemic and the timing and extent of theglobal economic recovery.
"While our outlook for the global market is more positivethan earlier in the year, the fundamental dynamics of the innovation cycle,funding pressures, and the broader macroeconomic environment will result inmid-single-digit growth over the next five years," noted Aitken."Notwithstanding the improved prospects in the U.S. market, the drive bypharmaceutical manufacturers to adapt to the longer-term marketplace trends andevolving patient needs will continue undiminished."
