Datamonitor: Battle against MRSA to net pharma industry $2 billion in coming years

But on the downside, the overall antibacterial market will decline.

Jeffrey Bouley
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The next decade will see the launch of a number of "new and expensive hospital brands" targeting serious infections caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria, particularly Multidrug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), according to independent market analyst firm Datamonitor. Together, these will lead to revenue of almost $2 billion by 2019, the firm predicts.

That's the good news. The bad news is that Datamonitor doesn't anticipate that the revenue upside provided by such pipeline products will be enough to make up for the market decline caused by increasing generic competition, safety concerns and resistance of organisms to the leading antibacterial brands. This means that total antibacterial sales will decline from about  $19.6 billion in 2009 to $16.4 billion in 2019.
"A number of premium-priced hospital brands will be launched over the next decade, driven by the high unmet need for new drugs to treat serious infections caused by MRSA and other dangerous Gram-positive bacteria," says Richard Phelps, a healthcare analyst at Datamonitor. These include, he notes, Teflaro (ceftaroline) from Forest Laboratories, AstraZeneca, and Takeda; PTK 0796 from Novartis and Paratek Pharmaceutical; and torezolid from Trius Therapeutics.

"Of the pipeline drugs, Teflaro (ceftaroline), with bactericidal activity against MRSA and broad-spectrum pathogen coverage, and torezolid, with once-daily, oral dosing for MRSA infections, currently have the best commercial outlook," Phelps asserts.
According to Datamonitor, Levaquin will hold on to its market-leading position in 2019, principally due to its continued popularity, its broad coverage of respiratory and genitourinary infections, and the strong sales and marketing power of its marketing companies, combined with the genericization of many of the other biggest-selling antibacterial brands.
In the United Kingdom, where Datamonitor is based, the firm predicts that the antibacterials market in that country will, in keeping with overall world trends going forward, essentially stagnate over the next decade, with total sales poised to decline from $671 million in 2009 to $649 million in 2019.
"While the raft of new product launches will replenish sales in the second half of the decade, cost-containment within the National Health Service and reduced healthcare spending as a result of government public spending cuts will give the UK market a smaller potential upside from pipeline products compared to a number of the other major markets," Phelps concludes.

Jeffrey Bouley

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