LONDON—Independent research and market analysis firm Datamonitor predicts that the going is going to be rough for the branded prescription pharmaceutical industry's leading companies, whose growth the firm predicts will slow to just 1.3 percent to the year 2015.
Between 2003 and 2009, theses same companies enjoyed robust sales growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1 percent, but sharp declines in branded sales following the loss of patent exclusivity will drive a rapid deterioration in growth.
"The difficulty in developing new products, particularly those that can generate sufficient sales to compensate for blockbuster expiries, has compounded this problem," says Simon King, pharmaceutical company analyst at Datamonitor. "This has driven a steady shift away from blockbuster-centric growth strategies towards diversification into other areas of the market."
"Datamonitor predicts that those companies insulated from generic competition—or able to offset it via revenue growth sourced from a high biologics focus or the targeting of niche indications and areas of high unmet need—will therefore emerge as the best performers," he adds.
Bayer, Novartis, Roche and GlaxoSmithKline will be the only Big Pharma companies to generate above-average growth over the period to 2015, Datamonitor predicts. Of 43 branded companies examined in detail by Datamonitor, 11 are expected to report a negative sales CAGR over the period to 2015. Of those expected to deliver a positive sales CAGR, only six will exceed the 7.1 percent average such companies experienced between 2003 and 2009.
Between 2003 and 2009, theses same companies enjoyed robust sales growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1 percent, but sharp declines in branded sales following the loss of patent exclusivity will drive a rapid deterioration in growth.
"The difficulty in developing new products, particularly those that can generate sufficient sales to compensate for blockbuster expiries, has compounded this problem," says Simon King, pharmaceutical company analyst at Datamonitor. "This has driven a steady shift away from blockbuster-centric growth strategies towards diversification into other areas of the market."
"Datamonitor predicts that those companies insulated from generic competition—or able to offset it via revenue growth sourced from a high biologics focus or the targeting of niche indications and areas of high unmet need—will therefore emerge as the best performers," he adds.
Bayer, Novartis, Roche and GlaxoSmithKline will be the only Big Pharma companies to generate above-average growth over the period to 2015, Datamonitor predicts. Of 43 branded companies examined in detail by Datamonitor, 11 are expected to report a negative sales CAGR over the period to 2015. Of those expected to deliver a positive sales CAGR, only six will exceed the 7.1 percent average such companies experienced between 2003 and 2009.
