A deep breath...and forward momentum in cystic fibrosis

LONDON—The market size for respiratory therapeutics—covering asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), and cystic fibrosis—is expected to rise considerably from $28.1 billion in 2015 to $46.6 billion by 2022, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5 percent, according to business intelligence provider GBI Research.

The report Global Respiratory Drugs Market to 2022 states that although the patent expirations of the commercially successful Advair, Symbicort, Ventolin and Spiriva will allow generics to enter the market, the impact of these expirations will be offset by the approval of new products.

Yasser Mushtaq, a senior analyst for GBI Research, explains: “Recently approved products in COPD include multiple long-acting beta-2 agonist/long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) fixed-dose combinations, some of which are forecast to generate over $1 billion by 2022, and include GlaxoSmithKline’s (GSK’s) Anoro, Novartis’s Ultibro and Boehringer Ingelheim’s Stiolto.

“The approvals of novel biologics in the asthma market, including interleukin (IL)-targeting Nucala (mepolizumab) and Cinqair (reslizumab), marketed by GSK and Novartis, respectively, are also forecast to have a strong commercial impact on the market.”

Although GSK is currently the leading company in terms of revenue generated from respiratory disorder products, GBI Research expects Vertex, which specializes in the cystic fibrosis segment, to overtake GSK by 2022.

Mushtaq continues: “The emergence of transmembrane conductance regulator modulating therapies, which are considered disease-modifying therapies for cystic fibrosis, an indication which has traditionally only had symptomatic treatments, is set to have a substantial clinical and commercial impact.

“There are only two of these products on the market—Kalydeco and Orkambi—both of which were developed by Vertex. They are forecast to generate $2.8 billion and $6.8 billion, respectively, by 2022, driven by strong demand for disease-modifying therapies. Vertex also has a Phase III candidate of the same class, which is expected to achieve blockbuster status during the forecast period.

“These factors, combined with the limited or negative growth forecast for other key players in the market, including GSK, Boehringer Ingelheim and AstraZeneca, will allow Vertex to become the leading company in the respiratory disorders landscape in terms of revenue generated by 2022.”